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Understanding Sports Betting Probabilities
Alice Maria da Cunha
Alice Maria da CunhaIt’s fair to assume that the way to win money with sports betting is to predict what will happen. Technically, it’s true, but just getting your predictions right isn’t enough to consistently yield a profit. There are too many variables involved in sports events, which makes it impossible to get your predictions right every time. But by understanding probabilities, as we discuss on this page, you might just be able to boost your chances of winning.
What is Probability in Sports Betting
Whether you’ve heard of probability in sports betting or not, it’s a need to know. It’s a measure of how likely something is to happen. Probability is expressed as a decimal between 0 and 1.0, with 1 being a certainty and 0 indicating impossibility. Like odds, probability can also be expressed as a percentage, with 100% being a sure thing and 0% an impossibility.
One of the best things about probability is that you precisely calculate it. Let’s use the toss of a coin as an example. There are just two potential outcomes: heads or tails. So, there’s a 50% probability of either.
Now, if we take probability in sports betting, it’s a little different and not as simple. In fact, it’s impossible to precisely calculate the probable outcome of a sporting event. There are just too many factors at play.
Which Is More Useful?
It all depends on the situation. Using odds (both your own and the bookmaker’s) to arrive at an implied probability is your safest and most rewarding betting strategy.
But it also depends on just how serious you are about gambling. If you’re a casual gambler, the odds will do, but if you’re more serious about turning a profit, you’ll have to turn to implied probability. Since odds and probability are essentially expressions of the same facts, you can use either, depending on what you’re more comfortable with.
As you hone your sports betting skills, we recommend looking for value bets. With these bets, the offered odds tend to be longer than what the calculations reveal, and that alone requires an in-depth understanding of probability.
Converting Odds To Probabilities
Keen to convert odds to probability? It’s this easy: put the number at the bottom on top and divide the sum of those numbers. Let’s use 5/6 as an example:
(5+6) = 6/11 = 54.5%.
Calculating odds and the likelihood of the other team winning, you will get higher potential winnings as there is more value.
If you bet with different formats, like decimals, it’s easier as you simply divide the bookie’s decimal odds by 1 to arrive at the probability.
Applying Probabilities
If you’re a serious punter, chances are you have a sound betting strategy, and your number one focus is looking for value in your preferred bets. Here’s how you can apply probabilities to your strategies to boost your chances of a win:
Make use of tactical analysis, charts and statistics to figure out how likely you estimate the outcome of an event.
Check out how likely the sportsbooks are to see your outcome.
Should you think that an event is more likely than what the bookies imply via their odds, you’ve probably found a value bet.
Consistently bet on real value bets to make a profit over the long run.
How Can you Make use of Probabilities?
There are really no downsides to using an implied probability for your betting decisions. Just look at some of the ways it can help you:
While sports betting probabilities aren’t the golden ticket to your winning chances, they are a valuable tool to add to your betting strategies to help improve your game and, we hope, your long-term results.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions about Understanding Probabilities
The higher the number, the greater an outcome’s probability. The odds change as bets come in, so probability estimations will vary over time.
With implied probability, you convert betting odds into a percentage. For example, if a bet has an odds of 4.00, its implied probability is 25%, referring to the fact that the bookie expects the bet to win once in every four attempts.
Odds and probability are not exactly the same thing. Probability is the ratio between one outcome and all possible outcomes, whereas odds are ratios between various outcomes happening.
Yes, to convert sports betting odds to probability, use the selection’s chance of winning and divide by the total number of chances – both the winning and losing chances.
It can certainly boost your winning chances but like all forms of gambling, there are no guaranteed wins.
Implied probability refers to the likelihood of a particular outcome happening and is calculated by dividing one by the decimal odds. It’s how seasoned punters find value bets.
It means that the probability of an individual outcome is just 1%.
Probability for sports betting involves converting odds to a percentage to represent the likelihood of an outcome. For example, a 50% implied probability on a bet suggests the bet will be successful 50% of the time.
Conhecida como a Mulher-Maravilha da nossa liga, Alice é torcedora do Athletico Paranaense, adora MMA, esportes no gelo, e-Sports e vôlei. Já morou na Argentina, Bolívia, Tailândia, Malásia, Indonésia e tem mais de 6 anos de experiência na coordenação e produção de conteúdo de outro mundo para sites de apostas online. Dotada de força e superpoderes (como era de se esperar, por isso o apelido), analisa cada detalhe com imparcialidade, autenticidade e traz sempre informações supersecretas dos melhores sites de apostas online aqui no Betman.net.